The global art market faced significant headwinds in 2024, with sales declining 12% to $57.5 billion, according to the newly released Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2025, authored by Dr. Clare McAndrew of Arts Economics. Despite this overall contraction, the market revealed fascinating dynamics beneath the surface, with divergent performance across price segments, regions, and sectors.

1. Higher transaction volume despite market softening

The headline figure shows global art market sales falling to an estimated $57.5 billion in 2024, down 12% from the previous year. This marks the second consecutive year of declining values following the strong post-pandemic recovery. However, transaction volume increased by 3% to 40.5 million sales, pointing to a fundamental shift in market activity rather than an across-the-board slowdown.

This paradox is explained by robust activity in lower-priced segments while the high-end market thinned significantly. In essence, more art is changing hands, but at lower price points – a democratization and resilience of the market that may prove healthy for its long-term development.

2. The high end takes the biggest fall

The most dramatic shifts occurred at the highest end of the market. The number of fine art works selling at auction for over $10 million fell by 39%, following a 27 % decline in 2023. The share of market value from $10 million-plus works dropped from 23% in 2023 to just 18% in 2024 – a stark contrast to 2022, when this segment accounted for 33% of total sales.

Meanwhile, sales under $5,000 grew both in value (up 7%) and volume (up 13%). This growth at the lower end kept overall transactions buoyant in spite of the significant drop in high-value sales.

3. Shifting regional dynamics

The United States maintained its position as the leading art market, accounting for 43% of global sales by value, a slight increase from 2023. However, its sales declined by 9% year-on-year to $24.8 billion, representing the second consecutive year of falling values.

The United Kingdom reclaimed second position with 18% of the market (up 1%), while China fell to third place with 15% (down 4%). After experiencing a temporary post-lockdown boost in 2023, China’s market contracted sharply by 31% to $8.4 billion, its lowest level since 2009.

France held steady as the fourth-largest market, with 7% of global sales, though values declined by 10% year-on-year to $4.2 billion in 2024.

4. Smaller galleries and primary market resilience

In a notable reversal of recent trends, smaller galleries showed remarkable resilience compared with their larger counterparts. Dealers with turnover below $250,000 experienced the largest increase in sales at 17% – a significant turnaround for this segment, which had previously experienced the weakest recovery post-pandemic, and an unusual occurrence in periods of overall market downturn.

Conversely, for the highest-end dealerships with turnover above $10 million, sales declined by 9%, highlighting how market pressures are being felt differently across business scales.

 5. Art fairs and digital channels drive new buyer acquisition

Art fair sales increased slightly to 31% of total dealer sales in 2024, up 2% from 2023, though still below pre-pandemic levels of 42%. This growth was primarily driven by international fairs (up by 2% to 20%), while local fair sales remained stable. Larger dealers benefited most from this recovery, with those turning over more than $10 million reporting a 4% increase in art fair sales to 34% of their total.

Simultaneously, online sales showed resilience despite moderating to $10.5 billion (down 11% year-on-year but still 76% above pre-pandemic levels). E-commerce now represents a stable 18% of total art market sales—double its 2019 share—suggesting digital channels have become a permanent fixture in the market's infrastructure.

Both channels proved crucial for expanding the collector base, with dealers reporting that 44% of their buyers in 2024 were new to their businesses. Sales to these new customers increased to 38% of total value (up 5% from 2023). Notably, 46% of dealers' online sales were to first-time buyers, highlighting digital platforms' effectiveness for market expansion. Smaller dealers led overall new buyer acquisition with a 50% share, while even galleries with turnover exceeding $10 million reported that 40% of their buyers were new. This influx of fresh collectors across both traditional and digital channels suggests a healthy broadening of the market's base despite the challenging economic climate.

6. Private sales buck the trend

While public-auction sales declined by 25%, private sales through auction houses increased by 14% in 2024. This shift mirrors historical patterns where, during periods of market uncertainty, private transactions often outperform public sales as sellers opt for more discretion and control over pricing. The movement toward private channels suggests continuing strong demand, just expressed through different transaction methods.

7. Contemporary art cooling while older sectors warm

The market showed a significant shift in sectoral performance. Dealers working exclusively in Contemporary art experienced an 11% drop in sales, following record-breaking auction results in 2020 and 2021, while those in Post-War, Modern, and Old Master sectors reported stable or increasing sales.

This reverses the pattern of recent years, with older sectors of the fine art market outperforming Contemporary art. Dealers noted that higher prices were concentrated on more established artists, while newer Contemporary artists continued to sell well but at lower price points, suggesting a flight to perceived safety among collectors, as well as a reduction of availability of high-value works at auction.

Looking Ahead

Despite the challenges of 2024, the art market showed resilience through adaptability. The expanding base of transactions at lower price levels provides greater market stability and suggests a broadening collector base – a crucial factor for long-term health.

Looking to 2025, the art trade remains cautiously optimistic, with 33% of dealers expecting improved sales. With interest rates expected to fall and political uncertainties resolved in key markets, there are reasons for measured optimism, especially if the democratizing trends continue alongside recovery at the higher end.